Mastercard’s Economics Institute forecasts strong economic momentum for the Middle East and Africa (MEA) in 2026, with regional GDP growth projected at 3.6%, outpacing the global average of 3.1%. The outlook highlights resilience driven by reforms, fiscal investment, and digital transformation.

In the Middle East and North Africa, structural reforms and diversification efforts are key growth drivers. Digitalization and technology-led investment are helping economies adapt amid global fragmentation and reduce reliance on oil revenues.

A major theme is the region’s rapid adoption of advanced technologies and artificial intelligence. Tech-related projects now account for more than 20% of non-residential construction, supported by initiatives such as Saudi Vision 2030 and the UAE’s AI strategy.

Africa’s outlook centers on rising digital inclusion and consumer resilience. Mastercard’s expanded payments network is supporting a digital economy expected to reach $1.5 trillion by 2030, with consumer spending growth forecast at 6% in Nigeria, 4% in Kenya, and 3.4% in Morocco.

The report also flags ongoing risks, including geopolitical tensions, climate pressures, and uneven inflation trends. While GCC inflation is expected to remain near 2%, oil-importing economies may face higher inflation around 6.7%, continuing to strain household purchasing power.